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Closing Out a Decade

Justin Toedtman • Dec 30, 2019

There are only a few days remaining in 2019. By mid-week, we will be ringing in a new year and new decade! It was quite an eventful year in the markets and for news, in general. Before diving into market-speak, it seems only fitting to take a quick look back at some of the major news headlines of 2019.


We began the year with a government shutdown, which definitely injected uncertainty into how the year would unfold. The Clemson Tigers won the College Football National Championship and were honored at the White House with a fast food spread since the government employees were on furlough. The shutdown lasted 35 days, the longest in US history, before an accord was met. The college admission scandal, involving fraud and widespread bribery at elite US universities, made news and Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft were grounded by the FAA. This was just the first quarter of the year!
 
In April, the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris tragically caught fire. The British Royal Family welcomed Archie, the first child of Price Harry and wife, Meghan. There were ‘traffic jams’ on Mount Everest due to overcrowding while there was also congestion at the National Spelling Bee as eight co-champions were crowned because organizers “ran out of words.” The first Democratic presidential debate closed out the second quarter.
 
As the summer heated up, Robert Mueller testified on Capitol Hill regarding his recently concluded investigation into Russian election interference in 2016. Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as Britain’s Prime Minister and the US women’s soccer team won their fourth World Cup, which brought the gender pay issue back into the spotlight. A couple of horrific mass shootings temporarily reignite gun control discussions in the US while across the Pacific, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong continued to intensify. As summer gave way to autumn, there was a bit of a dispute as to the projected path of Hurricane Dorian which impacted the east coast, sparing Alabama.
 
The last quarter began with a first, as an all-female spacewalk was conducted outside the International Space Station. Unfortunately, fires spread and burned across the state of California for several weeks causing massive amounts of damage while Venice, Italy faced its worst flooding in 50 years. After dragging on for several years, it appears Brexit is moving forward and the US House of Representatives voted to formally impeach President Trump. There is no doubt 2019 was an eventful year for news and also for the markets!


Darlings of the Dow

 
The final quarter of 2018 had investors in panic mode as the major indices sold off; giving up all of the gains of the year and closing in the red. The Standard and Poors 500 index closed 
down 6.2% for the year - all of the losses coming between October and December. Predictions from the pundits varied wildly and investors were not sure what to make of the situation as 2019 was rung in. On the afternoon of January 2nd, Apple (AAPL) revised their earnings guidance due to lack of iPhone upgrades and headwinds in China. Obviously, this sent shockwaves through the markets as investors punished Apple, taking the rest of the market with it.
 
The markets quickly gained their composure and the 3rd of January turned out to be the 
lowest point for the markets all year. In fact, the markets rose out of the trough of late 2018 with gusto and by early May the S&P 500 was making new all-time highs. As we entered into the summer months, the markets entered into a choppy zone as uncertainty of the trade war with China weighed heavily. The last quarter of the year was strong and the major indices are near all-time highs with two trading days remaining.
 
Remember that revised Apple guidance mentioned earlier? Well, Apple went on a tear and YTD is up 83.7% posting the largest percentage gain of the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI). In fact, of the thirty companies comprising the index, all but three posted gains on the year. Even Boeing (BA), who faced significant turbulence after the 737 Max fleet was grounded is slightly up on the year, despite being down over 100 points from March highs. Twenty-four of the DJI companies posted double-digit gains YTD as the index itself has risen 
22.8% YTD. Table 1 details out the performance of the DJI companies.


​Turning our attention from the thirty companies of the DJI into the broader market, the S&P 500 gains on the year jump to 29.2% YTD. Referencing a table published in a recent newsletter, Bulls on Parade, illustrates this year falls in second to 2013 (+29.6%) as the largest percentage gains of this century. 2003 (+26.4%) had the third largest percentage gains so far of the 2000s.
 
Delving a little deeper into the breakdown of 2019 shows only two months - May and August - with declines. The other ten months averaged just over 3.5% gains.
 
Drilling even further into the 500 individual companies that comprise the S&P 500 index, we see that Apple, the darling of the DJI, does not even make it into the top ten in terms of percentage gains; Apple, with its 83.7% YTD gains on the year is number eleven.
​
With 150% increase YTD, the company making the strongest move of 2019 is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), who makes computer processor chips. In fact, half of the top ten performing companies are in the semiconductor space (highlighted in blue in Table 2 below).

Chart
Chart

If we dial back a couple of decades, the semiconductor sector helped fuel much of the market gains of the late 1990s - the strongest time (from a percentage growth perspective) in history. Carrying this leading indicator momentum into the new decade is definitely a positive sign.


Not all sectors are created equally
 
The universe of equities is vast and finding the best candidates for one’s portfolio can be tricky. One effective method of narrowing down the pool of investment candidates is to hone in on a particular sector that is performing well and select the strongest companies from within that sector. Conversely, investors can avoid underperforming sectors as well. We will delve into this topic a little more in a future newsletter.
 
Looking into the eleven sectors of the S&P 500, there is no surprise Technology performed the best in 2019 with nearly 50% appreciation. The top performers of both the DJI and S&P 500 belong to this sector. Table 3 provides more detail into YTD performance of the sectors.

Referencing Table 1 above, the top performing companies tie to the top performing sectors Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) [technology] are followed by several large financial institutions, Visa (V), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

chart

2020 Vision
 
This time of year always brings out the experts and their crystal balls. The news headlines seem to be all over the place, ranging from “the bubble is definitely going to burst in 2020” to “hang on, we’re just getting started and 2020 is going to be better than 2019!” This author has formed an opinion about where the markets head in the new year and will soon share in a future newsletter.
 
For now, here are some things to keep in mind as we prepare to flip over the calendars:

  •  Predicting the future is extremely difficult; no one truly knows what will happen.
  • The markets tend to want to do the same thing they have been doing as the markets are heavily driven by herd mentality.
  • This bull market is ten years old and may be tired but long-term trends are rarely changed on an acute move; usually there is consolidation and topping chart action signaling a change in trend (this is not currently happening.)
  • Averaging out all 500 S&P companies, the average percentage of 52-week high is 91%, a bullish indicator
  • 2020 is an election year and election years of a first-term president generally tend to rise into an election but can be volatile.
  • The Federal Reserve policy is currently favorable to market investors.
  • The technology sector looks strong and will likely remain so.
  • The financial and health care sectors are also strong but are losing energy.

 
Chart 1 below might offer parting perspective. It is a quarterly S&P 500 index chart. The next year, 2020, will print only four new bars on the chart. The long-term uptrend is currently very strong and the underlying strength, while weakening on shorter time-frames, does not paint a picture of an all-out crash in the new year to this analyst. A stronger first half giving way to sideways consolidation is a definite possibility. Again, a more detailed look into the future will be offered soon.

Chart

In closing, this author and Momentum Private Wealth Management are excited for the opportunities that are sure to unfold in 2020. The New Year is a perfect time to review your portfolio and talk to a professional you trust to ensure your investments are working toward your long-term goals. The most important thing is to have a solid plan. If you currently have no plan or feel your current plan can be improved, MPWM can help!
 
Here’s to your health, wealth, and happiness in the coming year and decade.



​If you are not having frequent conversations with your wealth or investment advisor about market strategies, investment management, or financial planning opportunities, you should be. 
Momentum Private Wealth Management specializes in Wealth Management as well as Comprehensive Financial Planning. Feel free to reach out to Austin directly at 512.416.8085 or austin@momentumpwm.com. You can also find out more information about MPWM at: www.momentumpwm.com.

Justin Toedtman is a market strategist and contributing editor to Momentum Private Wealth Management. For the last 20 years, his focus has been on technical analysis and market strategies.​


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MPWM does not warrant that the information will be free from error. None of the information provided on this website is intended as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as an endorsement of any company, security, fund, or other securities or non-securities offering. The information should not be relied upon for purposes of transacting securities or other investments. Your use of the information is at your sole risk. Under no circumstances shall MPWM be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages that result from the use of, or the inability to use, the materials in this site, even if MPWM or a MPWM authorized representative has been advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event shall MPWM have any liability to you for damages, losses, and causes of action for accessing this site. Information on this website should not be considered a solicitation to buy, an offer to sell, or a recommendation of any security in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, or recommendation would be unlawful or unauthorized.

10 Apr, 2024
You’ve been eyeballing the Roth IRA and like the idea of tax-free growth but there's a problem: your income exceeds the limit for contributing directly to a Roth IRA. Enter the ‘Backdoor’ Roth IRA strategy- a clever maneuver that allows high earners to enjoy the benefits of a Roth IRA without income limits. There are some important caveats so let’s dive into the strategy. Roth IRA Contribution Limits If you file taxes as a single person, your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) must be under $153,000 for tax year 2023 and $161,000 for tax year 2024 to contribute to a Roth IRA, and if you're married and file jointly, your MAGI must be under $228,000 for tax year 2023 and $240,000 for tax year 2024. If your Modified Adjusted Gross Income is above these limits then you are ineligible for a direct Roth IRA contribution and might consider utilizing the backdoor Roth IRA strategy. Step by Step Guide to Executing the Backdoor Roth IRA Contribution Step 1: Open a traditional IRA at your custodian of choice. Ensure they are aware of, and allow for Backdoor Roth IRA conversions. Step 1.5: If you do not already have a Roth IRA, then also open a Roth IRA at the same custodian. Step 2: Make a NON-DEDUCTIBLE contribution to your traditional IRA for the tax year of your choice. Reminder- you have until the Tax Filing Deadline to make a prior year IRA contribution. The contribution limit for 2023 is $6,500 for individuals under 50 and $7,500 for individuals over 50. Important Notes: DO NOT MIX tax-deferred IRA assets with Non-Deductible IRA assets. If you have a rollover IRA or Traditional IRA with tax-deferred assets in them, at ANY custodian, then you must be aware of the pro-rata rule for the conversion amount. Step 3: Instruct the custodian to convert your contribution from the Non-Deductible IRA to your Roth IRA. Important Notes: If you are subject to the pro-rata rule, you WILL owe taxes on any converted amount that is pre-tax. Timing: it is advisable to convert the non-deductible contribution to the Roth IRA as soon as possible. Benefits of the Roth IRA Roth IRAs enjoy a lifetime of tax-free growth! Building up what I call the ‘triad’ of investment accounts- Taxable, Tax-Deferred and Tax-Free will provide you with the greatest flexibility once in retirement for distributions and tax management. No Required Minimum Distributions Unlike Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs are not subject to Required Minimum Distributions over the original owners lifetime. This gives you the ability to let the assets grow and use only if needed. ·Estate Planning Benefits Even with SECURE ACT 2.0 changes, Roth IRAs are a fantastic estate planning tool. In Conclusion The backdoor Roth IRA. Strategy is another useful tool that allows high earners to continue saving in tax-free accounts. It is essential that you work with a financial professional to review the pro-rata rule as well as help determining the future legislative changes that may limit the future ability to perform backdoor Roth IRA contributions. When you need reliable financial planning for your small business in Cedar Park, TX, contact Momentum Private Wealth Management at 512-416-8085 today!
15 Mar, 2024
Retirement planning isn't just about saving money; it's about optimizing your financial strategies to ensure your hard-earned savings go the distance. One powerful tool often overlooked is the Roth conversion. By strategically converting traditional retirement account funds into Roth accounts before required minimum distributions (RMDs) kick in, retirees can potentially save a significant amount in taxes while enjoying greater flexibility and control over their retirement income. Understanding Roth Conversions Before diving into the strategy, let's understand what Roth conversions entail. A Roth conversion involves transferring funds from a traditional IRA or 401(k) to a Roth IRA. Unlike traditional retirement accounts, Roth IRAs offer tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals in retirement, provided certain conditions are met. The Pre-RMD Window of Opportunity Once you reach the age of 72 (or 70½ if you reached that age before January 1, 2020), the IRS requires you to start taking RMDs from traditional retirement accounts. These distributions are taxed as ordinary income, potentially increasing your tax liability in retirement. However, before reaching this age, retirees have a window of opportunity to strategically convert funds to a Roth IRA. Benefits of Roth Conversions Before RMDs 1. Tax Diversification: Roth conversions allow retirees to diversify their tax liabilities. By having both traditional and Roth accounts, retirees gain flexibility in managing their tax burden in retirement. 2. Tax-Free Growth: Funds converted to a Roth IRA grow tax-free, providing a valuable hedge against future tax rate increases. This tax-free growth can significantly enhance retirement savings over time. 3. Reduced RMDs and Taxable Income: By converting funds to a Roth IRA before RMDs kick in, retirees can potentially reduce the size of their RMDs and, consequently, their taxable income in retirement. This can help minimize tax implications and preserve more of your retirement savings. 4. Estate Planning Benefits: Roth IRAs offer attractive estate planning advantages, as distributions to beneficiaries are tax-free. By converting traditional retirement account funds to Roth IRAs, retirees can leave a tax-free inheritance for their heirs. Implementing a Roth Conversion Strategy 1. Evaluate Tax Implications: Before executing a Roth conversion, it's crucial to assess the tax implications. Consider factors such as your current tax bracket, future income projections, and potential impact on Medicare premiums. 2. Convert Strategically: Rather than converting all funds at once, consider a gradual conversion strategy over several years. This allows you to manage tax liabilities more effectively and stay within lower tax brackets. 3. Utilize Low-Income Years: Take advantage of years when your income is lower, perhaps due to part-time work, early retirement, or other factors. Converting funds during these years can minimize the tax impact. 4. Consider Partial Conversions: You don't have to convert your entire traditional IRA balance at once. Opt for partial conversions that align with your tax planning goals and financial needs. 5. Consult a Financial Advisor: Roth conversions involve complex tax considerations and financial planning strategies. It's advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor or tax professional to tailor a conversion plan that aligns with your specific circumstances. Conclusion Roth conversions offer retirees a powerful tool to optimize tax efficiency in retirement. By strategically converting funds from traditional retirement accounts to Roth IRAs before RMDs kick in, retirees can potentially save a significant amount in taxes while enjoying tax-free growth and greater flexibility in managing their retirement income. However, it's essential to approach Roth conversions with careful planning and consideration of individual financial goals and tax implications. With the right strategy in place, retirees can harness the benefits of Roth conversions to enhance their retirement savings and financial security. Get in touch with us today to embark on your journey towards financial empowerment and prosperity. We are here for you and your family for years to come. Visit our website or contact us at 512-416-8085 today!
16 Feb, 2024
Investment management is a key factor regardless of the fluctuations of economic times. Staying abreast of economic trends is paramount. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just dipping your toes into the market, understanding how economic shifts can impact your investments is crucial for long-term success. Here at Momentum Private Wealth Management, we recognize the significance of staying ahead of the curve. Let’s delve into the impact of economic trends on investment management, focusing specifically on what you need to know in Austin, Texas. The Intersection of Economic Trends and Investment Management Economic trends play a pivotal role in shaping investment strategies and decisions. From fluctuating interest rates to changes in consumer behavior, various factors can influence the performance of investment portfolios. As such, investors need to be proactive in analyzing economic indicators and adapting their investment approaches accordingly. In Austin, a thriving economic hub renowned for its vibrant tech scene and rapid growth, staying attuned to economic trends is particularly important. The city's dynamic ecosystem is subject to both local and global economic forces, making it imperative for investors to navigate these fluctuations strategically. Key Economic Trends Impacting Investment Management in Austin Tech Industry Dynamics: Austin's status as a burgeoning tech hub has propelled its economy to new heights. With the presence of major tech companies and a robust startup culture, the performance of the tech sector significantly influences investment opportunities in the region. Tracking trends such as technological innovations, funding rounds, and industry disruptions is essential for investors looking to capitalize on Austin's tech-driven growth. Real Estate Market: The real estate market in Austin has experienced remarkable growth in recent years, fueled by factors such as population influx, job opportunities, and favorable business conditions. However, rapid expansion also brings challenges such as housing affordability concerns and infrastructure strain. Investors must monitor real estate trends, including housing inventory levels, rental rates, and commercial developments, to make informed decisions about property investments. Economic Diversification: Austin's economy is characterized by its diversification across various industries, including technology, healthcare, manufacturing, and entertainment. This diversification enhances resilience and mitigates risks associated with sector-specific downturns. Investors can capitalize on this economic diversity by building well-balanced portfolios that encompass multiple sectors, thereby reducing exposure to volatility in any single industry. Interest Rate Fluctuations: Like the broader economy, interest rate fluctuations can significantly impact investment performance in Austin. Changes in interest rates affect borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and the attractiveness of certain asset classes. For instance, rising interest rates may lead to lower bond prices but could present opportunities for sectors such as financial services. Investors should closely monitor monetary policy decisions and economic indicators to gauge the direction of interest rates and adjust their portfolios accordingly. Strategies for Navigating Economic Trends in Austin Diversification: Building a diversified investment portfolio is a fundamental strategy for mitigating risk and maximizing returns, especially in a dynamic economic environment like Austin. By spreading investments across different asset classes, sectors, and geographical regions, investors can minimize the impact of localized economic downturns and capitalize on growth opportunities in diverse industries. Active Monitoring: Staying informed about economic trends requires continuous monitoring of relevant indicators and data points. Investors should leverage resources such as financial news outlets, economic reports, and industry analyses to stay ahead of market developments. Additionally, partnering with a reputable wealth management firm like Momentum Private Wealth Management provides access to expert insights and personalized guidance tailored to your financial goals. Long-Term Perspective: While short-term fluctuations may create volatility in the market, maintaining a long-term perspective is key to successful investment management. Instead of reacting impulsively to every economic trend, focus on your overarching investment objectives and stick to a disciplined strategy. By staying committed to your long-term financial plan, you can weather temporary market disruptions and position yourself for sustainable growth over time. Flexibility and Adaptability: Economic trends are inherently dynamic, requiring investors to remain flexible and adaptable in their approach. Be prepared to adjust your investment strategies in response to changing market conditions and emerging opportunities. A proactive stance towards portfolio rebalancing, asset allocation, and risk management can help you optimize your investment performance and navigate economic uncertainties effectively. When it comes to investment management, understanding the impact of economic trends is essential for making informed decisions and working towards achieving financial success. In Austin, a thriving economic hub characterized by innovation and growth, staying attuned to local and global economic dynamics is particularly crucial. By leveraging strategies such as diversification, active monitoring, long-term perspective, and flexibility, investors can navigate economic trends with confidence and position themselves for prosperity in the dynamic landscape of Austin's economy. At Momentum Private Wealth Management, we're committed to helping our clients navigate these challenges and capitalize on investment opportunities tailored to their unique financial goals. Get in touch with us today to embark on your journey towards financial empowerment and prosperity. We are here for you and your family for years to come. Visit our website or contact us at 512-416-8085 today!
three women are sitting at a table in a restaurant looking at a laptop .
19 Jan, 2024
One of the most critical parts of long-term success is financial planning. Professional financial planning in Cedar Park, TX, keeps your business on track, creates plans for the future, and helps you reach sales goals.
22 Nov, 2023
Are you worried you won't have enough money for retirement? Investment management can help determine how much you need and the best approach to save enough money. Keep reading to discover how to maximize your nest egg. How Much To Save The first step to maximizing your nest egg includes knowing how much you should save. Decide what you want your retirement to look like and make a list of things you want to do and how you want to live. Then, do your best to estimate what things will cost once you retire, considering an average inflation rate of 3.22%. Once you know your projected expenses, determine any sources of income you'll have, including investments, pension funds, and social security. The difference between your expenses and your income is how much you should save. Generally speaking, some experts have suggested that you may need as much as $2 million to live a 'comfortable retirement,' those these numbers can vary wildly depending on your spending habits. Financial professionals may also recommend you spend around 70-85% of your current income per year once you are retired. Tips for Saving Enough Money Whether your goal is $2 million or more, saving enough money can feel overwhelming. However, with the following tips, you can maximize your savings potential. Set an Age Goal Determine what age you think you'll be able to retire. While working longer allows you more time to save, it also reduces the amount of time you have to enjoy retirement. Conversely, if you retire too early, you'll depend on your savings for a while before you can draw from social security, which means you'll need to save even more money. The average age of retirement is between the ages of 65 and 66 which is around the age at which the Social Security Administration assumes retirement. This gives you significant time to save, avoids drawing from your savings too quickly, and still gives the average person over a decade to enjoy retirement. Pay Off Your Debts While not always possible, prioritize paying off your debts before you retire. If you continue to pay off your debts after retirement, focus on the high-interest ones first, which often include credit cards, personal loans, and car payments. Also, prioritize student loan payments. If you still have student loan debt in retirement, the government can garnish up to 15% of your social security payments if you fall behind. Maximize Contributions Good investment management guidelines suggest you maximize your contributions to your retirement accounts. If you're traditionally employed, your workplace probably offers some form of tax-advantaged retirement account. IRAs and 401(k)s remain two of the best methods for saving for retirement. While contributing the maximum allowable amount gives you less money to live off short term, it sets you up for success after retirement. The maximum you can contribute changes each year based on inflation rates and other economic factors, but in 2023, the IRS allowed a maximum contribution of $22,500, and for those savers who are 50 or older may contribute up to $30,000 depending on the plan. This is called the 'catch-up provision.' But contributing to these accounts doesn't just have long-term benefits. When you contribute to your 401k or IRA, you may be eligible to deduct the amount from your total taxable income, meaning you'll lower your taxable income for that year. Use Employer Match As part of their benefits, many employers match your 401(k) contributions up to a certain percentage of your total paycheck. The average employee match equals just under 5%. This means if you make $2,000 every paycheck and opt to automatically deposit 5% of it, you'll contribute a total of $200 toward your retirement: $100 from you and $100 from your employer ($2,000 x 0.05 x 2). Keep in mind your employer won't match the maximum if you don't contribute that much. For example, if your employer offers a 5% match, but you only contribute 3% of your total paycheck, you'll receive a 3% match instead of the 5% match. While that extra 2% gives you less paycheck to live off, you have to think long-term and realize how much money you'll miss out on for retirement. If you make $2,000 every paycheck, that extra 2% equals $80 a month. Throughout a 40-year career, that's $38,400 from your employer you've missed out on ($80 x 12 months x 40 years = $38,000) plus the potential growth! Remember, employer matches are a guaranteed 100% return on your money.. Consider how good investing could multiply that money. Diversify the Investments Whether you invest in your retirement accounts or other investments, diversity is one of the first rules of good asset management. This means instead of putting all your money into one asset class, consider investing in a well diversified portfolio which may include different countries and sectors of the investable market. Financial experts consider a diversified portfolio a more impactful investment strategy as the goal would be to lower your overall risk for the level of return. Certain asset classes do not provide an equally higher level of return for the risk. Regularly Review and Adjust One key way to maximize your nest egg requires regularly reviewing your investments, assessing their performance, and adjusting as needed. If one area of your portfolio underperforms,determine whether or not you need to redeploy those assets into another area of the portfolio. Don't consider investments something you fund and then forget about. While you'll still likely grow your nest egg, you won't maximize it without purposeful attention. You can also vary your risk as you near retirement, and many people prefer to invest aggressively when they're young and take a less aggressive approach as they near retirement. Minimize Fees Many investments have underlying fees- called expense ratios. Depending on whether or not the investment is actively managed by the management company, these fees can often near or exceed 1% depending on the fund. Large underlying expense ratios can erode returns over a long period of time so be sure you are invested in a manner that suits your needs and if you are paying large expense ratios, the fund is producing excess returns to demand that fee. Keep Learning While your financial manager can handle most of your investments, stay informed by reading a financial journal or other reputable sources. This can help you understand your investment portfolio and help drive the conversation with your advisor about the risk you are willing to take vis a vis your goals. Contact Your Wealth Management Experts for Help At Momentum Private Wealth Management, we take our duty of investment management seriously. We take time to learn your goals and help you build wealth while navigating a volatile market. To learn more about our investment management services or to speak with a wealth management specialist, call 512-416-8085 today.
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